David Spiegelhalter

Understanding Uncertainty

Statistician David Spiegelhalter aims to improve the “risk literacy” of the general public, the media, and those who decide public policy. “We should be teaching the ability to deconstruct the latest media story about a cancer risk or a wonder drug, so people can work out what it really means for them” says Spiegelhalter, adding that “a critical public would encourage media and government to communicate the magnitudes of risks in a transparent way”.

To help achieve this he has set up a Risk Roadshow to visit English schools, and is running a mass online experiment, the Big Risk Test, with the BBC. He believes that a basic understanding of risk is crucial when making choices about health, money, and where our energy should come from, which is why it should be part of the curriculum at high schools.

Spiegelhalter is Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge, where he also researches Bayesian methods and the use of statistics in health care. Spiegehalter has been an advisor to organizations such as the British Healthcare Commission, the World Anti-Doping Agency, and pharmaceutical companies such as Novartis and GlaxoSmithKline

Spiegelhalter is also an avid creator of stained-glass artwork, and plays as a drummer in a samba band.